EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center|California voters will set matchups for key US House races on Super Tuesday

SACRAMENTO,EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center Calif. (AP) — California voters will set matchups for some of the country’s most competitive U.S. House races, which could help determine which party controls the chamber next year.

All of California’s 52 congressional seats have primary elections Tuesday, with the top two vote-getters in each race advancing to the general election — regardless of their political party. About 10 of those seats figure to be competitive, and a handful are considered toss-ups.

Despite California’s liberal reputation, conservatives still have strength in the Southern California suburbs and the Central Valley farm belt.

Among Democrats, several of the primaries have turned particularly nasty as multiple candidates vie for a spot on the November ballot.

Currently there are 219 Republicans in the House, 213 Democrats and three vacancies.

Here’s a look at the most competitive races in California:

22ND DISTRICT: POLITICAL INFIGHTING LEADS TO LOCKOUT FEARS

On paper, a Democrat should represent this Central Valley farm district. The party holds a 16-point advantage over Republicans among registered voters. But Republican David Valadao held the seat from 2013 until 2019, lost it for one term and then retook it in 2020.

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Valadao defeated former state Assembly member Rudy Salas in 2022. Salas is trying again this year, and he has the backing of the Democratic Party and prominent officials like Gov. Gavin Newsom. But Democratic state Sen. Melissa Hurtado also is vying for the seat. Meanwhile, Republican rancher Chris Mathys is competing for GOP votes with Valadao.

It’s possible that Salas and Hurtado — two state lawmakers who are well known in the district — could splinter the Democratic vote and allow both Republicans to advance to the general election. That would be a blow to Democrats’ chances of retaking the House.

Newsom recently made a fundraising pitch on Salas’ behalf, warning of a “DEEP risk of having two Republicans make the general election.”

47TH DISTRICT: REPLACING KATIE PORTER

With Democratic Rep. Katie Porter running for a U.S. Senate seat, Republicans hope to recapture what had once been a reliable conservative seat.

Heading the GOP field is Scott Baugh, a former state Assembly member who narrowly lost to Porter in 2022. Meanwhile two Democrats are vying for votes: state Sen. Dave Min and Joanna Weiss, who founded an organization to promote progressive candidates.

The race between Min and Weiss is one of the nastiest this cycle, with each campaign relentlessly attacking the other. That also means they’re handing easy general election fodder to Republicans.

Weiss’ campaign is going after Min for a drunken driving arrest last year. Min has accused Weiss of funding her campaign from money her husband made as a lawyer defending Catholic priests found guilty of molesting children. Weiss’ campaign says her husband never defended a Catholic priest, saying she loaned money to the campaign from a home equity line of credit.

Porter backs Min, who also has the endorsement of the state party. Weiss is backed by Emily’s List, which supports Democratic women who favor abortion rights, and by Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis.

45TH DISTRICT: A REPUBLICAN SEEKS TO HOLD ON TO A SEAT IN ASIAN COMMUNITY

South Korean immigrant Michelle Steel, a Republican, has represented this district anchored in Orange County since 2020.

The district was drawn to give Asian Americans a stronger voice in Washington and is home to the nation’s largest Vietnamese community.

Four Democrats are running. The state party has endorsed Kim Nguyen-Penaloza, the daughter of a Vietnamese refugee father and a Mexican immigrant mother.

49TH DISTRICT: DEMOCRATS SEEK TO DEFEND A COASTAL SEAT

Voters in this district that includes portions of Orange and San Diego counties chose Democrat Mike Levin in 2018 to replace longtime Republican Darrell Issa, who has since returned to Congress in a neighboring district.

Levin has since been reelected twice — by six points in 2020 and 5 points in 2022.

California’s coastal districts tend to lean Democratic, but Republicans believe they have a chance to oust Levin. Four Republicans are trying: Former auto executive Sheryl Adams, auto dealer Matt Gunderson, Marine Corps veteran Kate Monroe and communications executive Margarita Wilkinson.

27TH DISTRICT: A REPUBLICAN TRIES TO HANG ON IN LIBERAL LOS ANGELES

The last Republican House member anchored in Los Angeles County, Mike Garcia has somehow found a way to win not just once but three times in a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 12 points.

Garcia gets help from both his background as a former Navy fighter pilot and his surname, which comes from his Mexican immigrant father and is familiar in a district with a significant Latino population.

Garcia’s main competition is Democrat George Whitesides. The former NASA chief of staff has been stressing abortion rights and environmental protection while trying to label Garcia as out of step with the district.

41ST DISTRICT: A VETERAN REPUBLICAN DEFENDS HIS SEAT

Republican Ken Calvert is the longest-serving Republican in the California congressional delegation, having held his seat in this district east of Los Angeles since 1993. He won by roughly 5 points in 2022 in a district that is about equally split between Republican and Democratic voters.

Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor who lost to Calvert in 2022, is trying again this year. He’s backed by the campaign arm of House Democrats. Rollins, who is gay, could garner significant support in the city of Palm Springs, which has a sizeable LGBTQ+ population.